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The Ross shelf helps to slow the flow of land ice from Antarctica into the ocean. MacAyeal said, “When B-15 broke off the Ross Ice Shelf in 2000, it was thought to have been a time when there were lots of waves being recorded.” Storm-generated ocean waves are just one of many environmental triggers behind ice shelf collapse that scientists are trying to understand. This line represents the route of the New York City Marathon. (ANTARCTICA - Tags: SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT) FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. In a study last year, Robert M. DeConto of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and David Pollard of Pennsylvania State University used their computer model to predict what would happen if emissions were reduced sharply over the next few decades, in line with international climate goals. NASA's Operation IceBridge has been studying how polar ice has evolved over the past eight years and is currently flying a set of 12-hour research flights over West Antarctica at the start of the melt season. Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 July 2017. var yaftConf = { US Secretary of State John Kerry is visiting the station as he travels to Antarctica, New Zealand, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and will attend the APEC summit in Peru later in the month. Compared with other parts of Antarctica, the shelf seems … b = parseInt(window.getComputedStyle(a).getPropertyValue("z-index"), 10) EDITORIAL USE ONLY. return magicNumber REUTERS/NASA Earth Observatory/Holli Riebeek/Handout via Reuters. window.adsDisableFileless && window.adsDisableFileless('text'); NASA's Operation IceBridge has been studying how polar ice has evolved over the past eight years and is currently flying a set of 12-hour research flights over West Antarctica at the start of the melt season. ... we needed to take measurements directly from the ocean under hundreds of metres of ice. window._taboola=window._taboola||[],_taboola.push({article:"auto"}); That could consequently raise sea levels by 3.3 meters...That's almost 11 feet. if (sizeMnArray !== null && sizeMnArray[e] !== null && typeof(sizeMnArray[e]) !== "undefined" && sizeMnArray[e] !== "") { That flooding would have occurred at the end of the last ice age. NASA and University of California, Irvine (UCI) researchers have recently detected the speediest ongoing Western Antarctica glacial retreat rates ever observed. The biggest, B-15, measured 11,000 square kilometers when it broke from Antarctica’s Ross ice shelf in March 2000. Beginning perhaps 25,000 years ago, after the orbit shifted again, the ice sheets began to melt and the sea level began to rise. ... the grounded ice inland. Courtesy ESA/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. Under the most ambitious scenarios, they found a strong likelihood that Antarctica would remain fairly stable. Maps and graphics by Derek Watkins and Jeremy White. To predict how quickly this vulnerable ice could raise sea levels, scientists need better data than they have now. The orange and gray pod beneath the window will map the structure of the shelf with radar, a laser and other sensors. It's about the size of Delaware. “There are still some really big question marks about the trajectory of future climate around Antarctica.”. try { The risk is clear: Antarctica’s collapse has the potential to inundate coastal cities across the globe. If that ice sheet were to disintegrate, it could raise the level of the sea by more than 160 feet — a potential apocalypse, depending on exactly how fast it happened. Scientists are also trying to measure the role of human-caused climate change in weakening some parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and to fathom how damaging the seas around the continent might prove to be as they warm over time. Dr. DeConto and Dr. Pollard do not claim that this is a certainty — they acknowledge that their analysis is still rough — but they argue that the possibility should be taken seriously. For instance, scientists need to know a lot more about the ground beneath the glaciers there. }; In 1978, Ohio State University glaciologist John Mercer published a paper in Nature predicting that climate change could cause the rapid collapse of much of the West Antarctic ice sheet. e.src = u; But A68a surprised scientists for other reasons, too. Now What? var e = getDeviceState(); We went to Antarctica to understand how changes to its vast ice sheet might affect the world. “We are 9,000 miles from New York,” said the white-haired engineer, Nicholas Frearson of Columbia. var b; These areas do not hold much SLE (Table 1). window.adSetAdURL && window.adSetAdURL('/_uac/adpage.html'); If those same processes destabilise the Ross Ice Shelf, this could lead to a catastrophic collapse of West Antarctica, adding about 3.3m of sea level rise from West Antarctica alone. That urgent need for insight has led scientists from Columbia to spend the past two Antarctic summers flying over the Ross Ice Shelf, a floating chunk of ice larger than California. The winds around the continent seem to be strengthening, stirring the ocean and bringing up a layer of warmer water that has most likely been there for centuries. ... “The collapse … } “But the model is suggesting there’s a way to reduce the risk of a big sea-level rise from Antarctica.”. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS, The B-31 Iceberg is seen before separating from a rift in Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier in this NASA Earth Observatory handout image acquired on October 28, 2013. AOL.responsiveEnabled = true; // required by dynamic-lede.js, isAutoRotateDisabled() Four New York Times journalists joined a Columbia University team in Antarctica late last year to fly across the world’s largest chunk of floating ice in an American military cargo plane loaded with the latest scientific gear. The Ross shelf helps to slow the flow of land ice from Antarctica into the ocean. In the Bible, God orders Noah to carry two of every living creature on his ark. Satellites have identified the most rapid loss of ice there, raising a critical question: Has an unstoppable collapse of the ice sheet already begun? This page contains sensor data and derived products. Satellite image: NASA/United States Geological Survey Landsat. “What are the sort of hidden roads it can go on?”. e.async = 1; Recent research suggests that if society burns all the fossil fuels known to exist, the collapse of the ice sheet will become inevitable. The scale of the task is enormous.This flat expanse of white is the Ross Ice Shelf, a floating chunk of ice nearly as large as Texas. c.mn = magicNumber; Alarmed by the warning signs that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are becoming unstable, American and British scientific agencies are joining forces to get better measurements in the main trouble spots. “We could be decades too fast, or decades too slow,” said one of them, Robert M. DeConto of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Under its own weight, that ice flows downhill in slow-moving streams that eventually drop icebergs into the sea. Kerry is travelling to Antarctica, New Zealand, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and will attend the APEC summit in Peru later in the month. NASA and University of California, Irvine (UCI) researchers have recently detected the speediest ongoing Western Antarctica glacial retreat rates ever observed. The Larsen B glaciers accelerated in 2002 when the ice shelf collapsed and were still losing 8.4 Gt/y in 2017 (18, 19). . Map sources: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; British Antarctic Survey; NASA Earth Observatory; Natural Earth; Bright Earth e-Atlas Basemap. } var rapidConfig = { var hmpg_ads = new Array(); REUTERS/Greg Locke, A view of icebergs remaining after a break-up of Wilkins ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, January 19, 2009. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images), Are you a homeowner? if (obj.goldenFormat == "MobileMoments" && isMobile) { perf_navigationtime: 2, If you change your mind, here's how to allow notifications: Images of the Larsen C Ice Shelf and other large icebergs, An aerial view of the rift in the Larsen C seen in an image from the Digital Mapping System over the Antarctica Peninsula, Antarctica, on November 10, 2016. While icebergs are known to erratically break from glaciers and ice shelves every few years or so, there have been only five larger than A68a in the last 34 years. Scientists are racing to understand what is happening to the Ross Ice Shelf — and the rest of Antarctica — as the planet warms around it. “I don’t think the biblical deluge is just a fairy tale,” said Terence J. Hughes, a retired University of Maine glaciologist living in South Dakota. The most vulnerable parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet could raise the sea level by 10 to 15 feet, inundating many of the world’s coastal cities, though most scientists think that would take well over a century, or perhaps longer. AOL.pageType = "article"; // required by dynamic-lede.js, cstrack() Radar pulses and laser beams fired toward the ice below. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images), An iceberg lies in the Ross Sea with Mount Erebus in the background near McMurdo Station, Antarctica on November 11, 2016. var a = document.getElementById("state-indicator"); Figure1. Researchers have used the IceBridge data to observe that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be in a state of irreversible decline directly contributing to rising sea levels. Coutesy NASA/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. ... — Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) July 12, 2017. “Our goal is to understand how to predict what’s going to happen to the ice sheets,” said Robin E. Bell, the lead Columbia scientist in charge of the effort. That is double the maximum increase that an international climate panel projected only four years ago. The largest iceberg recorded by satellites calved from the Ross ice shelf in 2001, and was roughly the size of Jamaica at 11,000 km². Improbable as such a large rise might sound, something similar may have already happened, and recently enough that it is still lodged in collective memory. [10] [11] It is discovered that a monitoring station in West Antarctica detected a sharp warming of the atmosphere and the presence of clouds containing a considerable amount of moisture during a strong El Niño event for 15 days in January 2016 in the Ross Ice Shelf . magicNumber = sizeMnArray[e] The scale of Antarctica is startling. Antarctica Research Professor Nancy Bertler warns the collapse of another iceberg, the Ross Ice shelf, could increase the speed of land ice flowing into the sea. ATTENTION EDITORS - FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. Antarctic surface ice melt could be a sign of things to come Large chunks of the Ross Ice Shelf berg, named B15, were still bobbing about the Southern Ocean two years later. AOL.enableMobileSearchFocus = false; Today, the world population is seven billion and growing, and hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars of property are within a few feet of sea level. }; “It would not surprise me at all.”. if ($(divID).length) { window.Taboolalocale = "usa"; On average, runners finish it in about four and a half hours. This is the last of three dispatches from a New York Times reporting trip to Antarctica. Inside the cargo hold, an engineer with a shock of white hair directed younger scientists as they threw switches. !function (e, f, u) { (Photo by Hasan Esen/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images), ANTARCTICA - OCTOBER 27: An iceberg floats near the coast of West Antarctica as seen from a window of a NASA Operation IceBridge airplane on October 27, 2016 in-flight over Antarctica. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. An oblique view of a massive rift in the Antarctic Peninsula's Larsen C ice shelf is shown in this November 10, 2016 photo taken by scientists on NASA's IceBridge mission in Antarctica. broke away as part of the natural cycle of iceberg calving off the Larsen-C ice shelf in Antarctica in this satellite image released by the European Space Agency on July 12, 2017. window._newsroom = window._newsroom || []; Kirsty J. Tinto steps out of an LC-130 Hercules on the Ross Ice Shelf. Extensive satellite monitoring began in the 1990s and, within a decade, evidence emerged that the ice sheet was already starting to speed up, retreat and destabilize. Whether these alarming forecasts ultimately prove right depends in part on the shape of the sea floor beneath the ice shelf, and in particular on whether it has deep channels that can funnel warming ocean water under the ice shelf and attack the West Antarctic ice sheet from below. evidence for ice-shelf collapse has been reported for Marguerite Bay in the southern Antarctic Peninsula (6, 7) and in Pine Island Bay in West Antarctica (8, 9), but the timing and rate of these events are poorly constrained. // AOL.hmpg_ads.push(c); NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. } Working together, the two countries are planning to devote tens of millions of dollars to getting better measurements there, having decided that it is imperative to begin answering questions about the region’s potential collapse. Compared with other parts of Antarctica, the shelf seems stable now, but computer forecasts suggest that it might be vulnerable to rapid collapse in the next few decades. test_id: "", The survey was conducted throughout three Antarctic seasons (2015 - 2016, 2016 - 2017, and 2017 - 2018). Here, moderate resolution optical satellite images are used to map and classify regions of the RIS characterized by different surface textures. return b Written by Justin Gillis. Picture taken April 16, 2017. The ice shelf front has not calved this far back in 125 years (first seen by Carl Larsen in 1893) and Larsen C is on a course to collapse, very reminiscent of what happened to Larsen B in 2002." Because the collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheet could raise the sea level dramatically, the continued existence of the world’s great coastal cities — Miami, New York, Shanghai and many more — is tied to Antarctica’s fate. var isMobile = 0; // Make sure the atwUAC object exists before putting your function on it maxWaitTime: 3000 By studying the impact of tides, Dr Walker and Dr Dow were able to determine how the rise and fall of floating ice sheets may impact the likelihood of an eventual ice shelf collapse… In the 19th century, ethnographers realized that virtually every old civilization had some kind of flood myth in its literature. EDITORIAL USE ONLY. spaceid: 1197803369, Picture taken April 16, 2017. Vast glaciers in West Antarctica seem to be locked in an irreversible thaw linked to global warming that may push up sea levels for centuries, scientists said on May 12, 2014. The Amundsen Sea region is one of the remotest parts of the continent, far from American and British research bases. magicNumber = null Researchers have used the IceBridge data to observe that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be in a state of irreversible decline directly contributing to rising sea levels. f.parentNode.insertBefore(e, f); “But we are connected by the ocean.”. Abstract. The National Science Foundation in Washington and the Natural Environment Research Council in Britain have decided to make a huge push over the next few years to get the data needed to refine the forecasts and get ahead of the alarming changes already occurring in Antarctica. Sign up to receive our in-depth journalism about climate change around the world. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. From that cliff edge, icebergs occasionally calve away, completing a thousand-year journey of the ice from land to sea. 'Larsen C iceberg' weighs 21 million Titanic ships, and other mass comparisons On computer screens inside the plane, in ghostly traces of data, the broad white surface of the Ross Ice Shelf began to yield the secrets hiding beneath. My current interests have expanded to include processes at all boundaries of ice streams: calving processes control rates of ice-tongue retreat and ice-shelf collapse, grounding-line processes change velocities and the impacts of the ocean-induced melting, and shear-margin processes control the stability of the grounded ice that feeds the ice-ocean interfaces. ROSETTA-Ice is an airborne geophysical survey of the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Ice ages occur when wobbles in Earth’s orbit change the distribution of sunlight, allowing huge ice sheets to build up, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. ... Is A Monster Ice Shelf About to Collapse . A third step would be to determine how long the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would survive should the Ross Ice Shelf be removed. A sea level rise of that capacity would dramatically alter coastlines all over the world. // hmpg_ads.push(c); AOL.isWurflMobile = false; // required by dynamic-lede.js, isAutoRotateDisabled() There is no telling whether the Ross Ice shelf is prone to a break-off but Bertler says it has been found to be "very sensitive in the past and capable of rapid change. Over several thousand years, coastlines receded inland by as much as a hundred miles. Over tens of millions of years, thin layers of snow falling on the continent — in many places, just a light dusting every year — were pressed into ice, burying mountain ranges and building an ice sheet more than two miles thick. The surface of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is textured by flow stripes, crevasses and other features related to ice flow and deformation. Again?? More than 100 billion tons are lost every year. Antarctic Dispatches is a three-part series from the seventh continent. “What we need to know is really the details of what is occurring where the ice, ocean and land all come together,” said Ted A. Scambos, a University of Colorado scientist who is helping to plan the joint research effort. Six glaciers including the Thwaites Glacier, eaten away from below by a warming of sea waters around the frozen continent, were flowing fast into the Amundsen Sea, according to the report based partly on satellite radar measurements from 1992 to 2011. Get breaking news and big stories on your desktop. When the ice shelf in front of Sjögren disintegrated in 1995, it removed the buttress that stabilized the glacier. c.sps = sizeArray; window.adSetMOAT && window.adSetMOAT('1'); “We’re not sure because we don’t have enough data, for long enough, to separate signal from noise,” said Eric J. Steig, a scientist at the University of Washington who has studied temperature trends in Antarctica. 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